The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Australians continue to face a challenging cost of living crisis, economic analysts have prepared retailers for a rocky road ahead as the Christmas season approaches.
Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.
In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.
“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”
Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.
Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.
The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.
The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.
Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.
Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.
Australia’s mortgage market appears to be moving into a more active phase, with the latest lending indicators pointing to renewed borrower engagement after months of caution. Rather than waiting passively for clearer interest rate direction, many households seem to be testing whether their existing home loan still stacks up against current market offers. - read more
Australian mortgage holders have been given a cautious glimpse of future relief, with Westpac shifting its long-range interest rate forecast and bringing its expected timing for cuts forward to August 2027. That move means all four major banks now broadly expect borrowers to see lower rates from next year, rather than waiting until 2028. - read more
Tax time is shaping up less like a spending season and more like a reset moment for Australian households. Fresh reporting based on Finder research suggests many people expecting a 2026 tax refund are planning to bank the money, pay bills or reduce debt rather than spend it on discretionary purchases. - read more
Australian mortgage competition has taken a notable turn, with a growing group of lenders trimming selected home loan rates even after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May cash rate increase. According to recent market reporting, 18 lenders have reduced at least some variable mortgage rates, while AMP Bank has made one of the sharper fixed-rate moves, cutting selected fixed rates by up to 0.50 percentage points. - read more
Australia’s housing market has shifted into a more cautious phase, with the latest PropTrack Home Price Index showing national values declined for a third consecutive month in June. The fall was broad-based, with every capital city except Darwin recording softer prices, although national values remain close to recent record highs. - read more
Welcome first-time home buyers! Embarking on the journey to purchase your first home can be both exciting and overwhelming. One of the crucial steps in this process is understanding and obtaining home loan pre-approval. - read more
Welcome to our comprehensive guide on navigating the complexities of investment property financing. In Australia, property investment has long been regarded as a favoured strategy for wealth creation and financial security. However, this path comes with its unique set of challenges and risks that must be carefully managed to ensure a successful investment journey. - read more
Welcome to our comprehensive guide on home loan refinancing. Whether you're a first-time homeowner or a seasoned property investor, understanding the ins and outs of refinancing can save you a significant amount of money and anxiety. - read more
Australian lenders assess home loan eligibility by looking at your income, expenses, debts, credit history, deposit, property security and ability to repay if circumstances change. This guide explains how borrowing capacity and pre-approval are assessed, what documents lenders usually request, and how to prepare before applying. - read more
Embarking on the journey to home ownership in Australia is both exciting and daunting. The housing market here is unique, with its own set of challenges and opportunities to navigate. Understanding the intricacies of this market is crucial as you begin your home ownership adventure. This means keeping an eye on property prices, interest rates, and evolving regulations that might impact your purchasing power. - read more
Need Help Finding a Home Loan?
Get your free home loan eligibility assessment and compare offers tailored
specifically to your circumstances.
All finance quotes are provided free (via our secure server) and without
obligation. We respect your
privacy.
"Mastering Home Loans: Navigating the Australian Mortgage Market"
Bear Market: A market condition where the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts.