The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Australians continue to face a challenging cost of living crisis, economic analysts have prepared retailers for a rocky road ahead as the Christmas season approaches.
Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.
In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.
“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.â€
Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.
Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,†explained Rumbens.
The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.
The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.
Amidst this “new normal†of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.
Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.
Australia's housing market is showing renewed signs of momentum, and that matters for anyone preparing to buy or upgrade. Recent property market reporting suggests values are firming across several capitals after a patchier period, with buyer demand, limited listings and expectations around future interest rates all playing a role. For households who were hoping that earlier winter softness would create more room to negotiate, the latest shift is a reminder that affordability can change quickly. - read more
Australia’s mortgage market has moved into another watch-and-wait phase after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at its latest meeting. For borrowers, the decision offers a welcome period of stability, but it should not be mistaken for a signal that home loan costs are now locked in place. - read more
Australia's home loan market appears to be shifting into a more competitive phase, with recent lending indicators suggesting investor activity is strengthening while many owner-occupiers remain cautious. For aspiring buyers, this matters because a lift in investor demand may influence auction conditions, price expectations and the urgency around securing finance before making an offer. - read more
Australia’s mortgage market appears to be moving into a more active phase, with the latest lending indicators pointing to renewed borrower engagement after months of caution. Rather than waiting passively for clearer interest rate direction, many households seem to be testing whether their existing home loan still stacks up against current market offers. - read more
Australian mortgage holders have been given a cautious glimpse of future relief, with Westpac shifting its long-range interest rate forecast and bringing its expected timing for cuts forward to August 2027. That move means all four major banks now broadly expect borrowers to see lower rates from next year, rather than waiting until 2028. - read more
Welcome to our comprehensive guide on home loan refinancing. Whether you're a first-time homeowner or a seasoned property investor, understanding the ins and outs of refinancing can save you a significant amount of money and anxiety. - read more
A mortgage offset account is a financial product that allows homeowners to use their savings to reduce the interest charged on their mortgage. It is a transaction account linked to your mortgage, and the balance in this account is offset against your outstanding mortgage balance when calculating interest charges. - read more
Buying your first home in Australia is exciting, but it can also be complex. First-time buyers need to understand property markets, home loan options, upfront costs, government assistance, inspections and legal steps before committing to a purchase. This guide explains 10 common mistakes first-home buyers make and how to approach each stage with clearer information, realistic planning and the right professional support. - read more
Australian lenders assess home loan eligibility by looking at your income, expenses, debts, credit history, deposit, property security and ability to repay if circumstances change. This guide explains how borrowing capacity and pre-approval are assessed, what documents lenders usually request, and how to prepare before applying. - read more
Welcome to our comprehensive guide on navigating the complexities of investment property financing. In Australia, property investment has long been regarded as a favoured strategy for wealth creation and financial security. However, this path comes with its unique set of challenges and risks that must be carefully managed to ensure a successful investment journey. - read more
Need Help Finding a Home Loan?
Get your free home loan eligibility assessment and compare offers tailored
specifically to your circumstances.
All finance quotes are provided free (via our secure server) and without
obligation. We respect your
privacy.
"Mastering Home Loans: Navigating the Australian Mortgage Market"
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts.