We are a proud member of the Financial Services Online network!
Connect with us on your favourite social media platform for the latest financial news, views, tips, tricks, resources and information.
Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.
In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.
“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”
Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.
Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.
The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.
The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.
Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.
Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori
| Mortgage Crisis: 40% of Australian Homeowners Under Pressure 09 Sep 2024: Paige Estritori A recent study has uncovered that an alarming number of Australian households are grappling with mortgage burdens, as over 1.4 million families find themselves in financial distress. This amounts to more than 40% of current home loan holders, according to new data from Finder, a consumer finance comparison service. - read more |
| Contactless Revolution: The Decline of Cash Among Tradies 07 Sep 2024: Paige Estritori Australia is embracing a cashless economy, a trend that is significantly reshaping how tradespeople, or 'tradies,' handle transactions in their day-to-day operations. - read more |
| RBA Remains Cautious Despite Economic Slowdown 06 Sep 2024: Paige Estritori Borrowers expecting a reduction in interest rates due to sluggish economic growth might have to wait longer, as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prioritizes inflation management. - read more |
| NSW Cracks Down on Abuse of First-Home Buyer Benefits 02 Sep 2024: Paige Estritori More than $9 million has been reclaimed in a concerted effort by Revenue NSW to ensure the first-home buyers program remains fair and effective. This initiative comes in response to a small group of applicants attempting to exploit the system meant to aid genuine first-time homebuyers. - read more |
| Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season 01 Sep 2024: Paige Estritori As Australians continue to face a challenging cost of living crisis, economic analysts have prepared retailers for a rocky road ahead as the Christmas season approaches. - read more |
| Exploring Different Refinancing Strategies to Ease Your Mortgage Stress When it comes to managing finances, one of the biggest stressors for homeowners is their mortgage. In Australia, many individuals and families struggle with mortgage stress, which can have a significant impact on their overall financial well-being. - read more
|
| Maximizing Your Budget: Smart Saving Strategies for Aspiring Homeowners Embarking on the journey to homeownership is a quintessential part of the American dream, one that conjures images of stability, accomplishment, and personal sanctuary. Yet, this dream comes with significant financial implications that can often feel daunting to aspiring homeowners. Navigating the landscape of real estate and mortgages requires an understanding of the economic commitment it entails. - read more
|
| Understanding Stamp Duty: What First-Time Buyers in Australia Need to Know Welcome to the exciting and sometimes complex world of real estate in Australia! If you are on the cusp of purchasing your first home, you've probably heard about stamp duty. But what exactly is it? Stamp duty is a form of tax imposed by Australian states and territories on property transactions. This tax is usually a percentage of the property purchase price or market value and is a legal requirement for most property sales. - read more
|
| First-Home Finders: How to Choose a Mortgage Broker Who Works for You Embarking on the journey to homeownership can feel like navigating uncharted waters, with mortgage brokers often serving as the compass guiding you through the complexities of home financing. For many first-time home buyers, understanding the role of a mortgage broker can provide peace of mind and valuable support throughout the home-buying process. - read more
|
| Planning for a Better Future: Exploring Refinancing Options for Aussie Homeowners As a homeowner in Australia, it is essential to stay informed about the current mortgage interest rate and inflation situation. This knowledge is crucial for effective financial planning and making informed decisions regarding your home loan. Understanding the impact of rising interest rates on Australian homeowners is particularly important. - read more
|
|
Understanding Loan Calculators: A Guide For Australian Homebuyers Welcome to this essential guide designed for Australian homebuyers who aspire to navigate the complex world of property financing. Due to the significant financial commitment involved in purchasing a home, understanding the nuances of mortgage calculations is imperative. Loan calculators are indispensable tools that offer valuable insights into the feasibility of a home loan, tailored to your personal economic circumstances. - read more
|
|
How to Leverage the First Home Owner Grant in Your Home Buying Journey Welcome to the pathway of becoming a homeowner in Australia! If you're a first-time buyer, there's a good chance you've heard of something called the First Home Owner Grant (FHOG). It's a pivotal element in the home buying conversation, and for good reason. Navigating through real estate jargon and financial assistance programs can be confusing, but understanding the FHOG can significantly impact your purchasing power and overall experience in acquiring your dream home. - read more
|
|
The Investor's Toolkit: Managing Risks in Investment Property Financing Welcome to our comprehensive guide on navigating the complexities of investment property financing. In Australia, property investment has long been regarded as a favoured strategy for wealth creation and financial security. However, this path comes with its unique set of challenges and risks that must be carefully managed to ensure a successful investment journey. - read more
|
|
Interest Rates and Investment Properties: What Aussie Investors Need to Know For potential and seasoned investors alike, the Australian property landscape offers a plethora of opportunities. Investment properties have long been a favored asset class in Australia due to the potential for capital growth and rental yield. However, diving into the property market without a solid understanding of the financial mechanics, specifically interest rates, can be akin to sailing without a compass. - read more
|
|
Take Back Control: Mortgage Refinance and Debt Consolidation Tips for Aussie Homeowners As mortgage interest rates continue to rise in Australia, it's becoming more important than ever for homeowners to take control of their finances. This article will provide valuable tips on mortgage refinance and debt consolidation for Aussie homeowners. With the potential for future rate increases by the Reserve Bank of Australia due to inflation concerns, many homeowners are feeling the financial burden. However, by exploring options like refinancing and consolidating debt, homeowners can regain control of their financial situation. - read more
|