The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Australians continue to face a challenging cost of living crisis, economic analysts have prepared retailers for a rocky road ahead as the Christmas season approaches.
Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.
In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.
“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”
Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.
Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.
The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.
The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.
Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.
Australia's leading banks-Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), Westpac, National Australia Bank (NAB), and ANZ-are adjusting their mortgage strategies to reduce dependence on mortgage brokers. This move comes as profit margins are squeezed by lower interest rates, rising operational costs, and intensified market competition. - read more
On November 3, 2025, Westpac Banking Corporation announced an agreement to sell its RAMS mortgage portfolio, valued at A$21.4 billion, to a consortium comprising Pepper Money, investment firm KKR, and asset manager PIMCO. The sale is at a slight premium to the gross loan value of the portfolio to be transferred at completion. However, Westpac anticipates incurring a loss on the sale after accounting for transaction costs and other financial adjustments. - read more
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the nation's largest bank by market value, reported a slight increase in first-quarter cash profit, driven by strong growth in home loans and household deposits. The bank achieved an unaudited cash profit of approximately A$2.6 billion, a 1% rise from the previous two-quarter average and 2% higher than the same period last year. - read more
In October 2025, Australia's housing market witnessed its most substantial price surge in over two years. This remarkable growth is primarily attributed to recent interest rate cuts implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and supportive government policies aimed at stimulating the property sector. - read more
In its November 2025 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%. This decision reflects the central bank's cautious approach in light of persistent inflationary pressures and a robust housing market. - read more
Welcome to this essential guide designed for Australian homebuyers who aspire to navigate the complex world of property financing. Due to the significant financial commitment involved in purchasing a home, understanding the nuances of mortgage calculations is imperative. Loan calculators are indispensable tools that offer valuable insights into the feasibility of a home loan, tailored to your personal economic circumstances. - read more
Embarking on the journey to buy your first home is both an exciting and significant milestone in Australia. However, the process is also complex, and the learning curve can be steep for first-time home buyers. Being thoroughly informed is key to navigating the housing market's intricacies and can help elude the common missteps that befall many novices. - read more
Embarking on the journey to home ownership in Australia is both exciting and daunting. The housing market here is unique, with its own set of challenges and opportunities to navigate. Understanding the intricacies of this market is crucial as you begin your home ownership adventure. This means keeping an eye on property prices, interest rates, and evolving regulations that might impact your purchasing power. - read more
A credit score is a numerical representation of your creditworthiness. It is calculated based on your credit history, including factors like your payment history, the amount of debt you have, and the length of your credit history. - read more
Need Help Finding a Home Loan?
Get your free home loan eligibility assessment and compare offers tailored
specifically to your circumstances.
All finance quotes are provided free (via our secure server) and without
obligation. We respect your
privacy.
"Mastering Home Loans: Navigating the Australian Mortgage Market"
