Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Over Two Dozen Lenders Maintain Home Loan Rates Amid RBA Hike

19 May 2026: Paige Estritori

In the wake of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent decision to increase the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points, a notable segment of the lending market has chosen a different path. Over two dozen lenders, including prominent names like Citi and RAMS, have yet to implement corresponding hikes in their home loan interest rates. This divergence presents a unique opportunity for borrowers seeking stability amidst a climate of rising rates. - read more

APRA Introduces New Cap on High Debt-to-Income Home Loans

11 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has implemented a significant policy change aimed at bolstering financial stability within the housing market. Effective from 1 February 2026, APRA has imposed a cap limiting banks to issuing no more than 20% of new home loans to borrowers with a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio of six times or higher. This measure is designed to curb the rise in high-risk lending practices and mitigate potential vulnerabilities in the financial system. - read more

Australian Banks Respond to RBA's Interest Rate Increase

11 May 2026: Paige Estritori

In response to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent decision to raise the official cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.85%, Australia's major banks have announced corresponding increases in their home loan variable interest rates. This move marks the first cash rate hike in two years and reflects the central bank's efforts to address rising inflation and economic growth concerns. - read more

Finder Reveals Australia's Best Home Loans for 2026

11 May 2026: Paige Estritori

To assist Australians in navigating the complex home loan market, Finder has announced the winners of its Home Loans Awards for 2026. These awards highlight the top-performing mortgage products and lenders across 15 categories, providing valuable insights for prospective borrowers. - read more

APRA Implements New Cap on High Debt-to-Income Home Loans

03 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at enhancing financial stability within the housing market. Effective from 1 February 2026, APRA will impose a cap limiting banks to issuing no more than 20% of new home loans to borrowers with a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio of six times or higher. This measure is designed to curb the rise in high-risk lending practices and mitigate potential vulnerabilities in the financial system. - read more

Click for more Finance News