The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Australians continue to face a challenging cost of living crisis, economic analysts have prepared retailers for a rocky road ahead as the Christmas season approaches.
Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.
In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.
“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”
Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.
Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.
The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.
The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.
Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.
Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.
In the wake of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent decision to increase the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points, a notable segment of the lending market has chosen a different path. Over two dozen lenders, including prominent names like Citi and RAMS, have yet to implement corresponding hikes in their home loan interest rates. This divergence presents a unique opportunity for borrowers seeking stability amidst a climate of rising rates. - read more
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has implemented a significant policy change aimed at bolstering financial stability within the housing market. Effective from 1 February 2026, APRA has imposed a cap limiting banks to issuing no more than 20% of new home loans to borrowers with a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio of six times or higher. This measure is designed to curb the rise in high-risk lending practices and mitigate potential vulnerabilities in the financial system. - read more
In response to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent decision to raise the official cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.85%, Australia's major banks have announced corresponding increases in their home loan variable interest rates. This move marks the first cash rate hike in two years and reflects the central bank's efforts to address rising inflation and economic growth concerns. - read more
To assist Australians in navigating the complex home loan market, Finder has announced the winners of its Home Loans Awards for 2026. These awards highlight the top-performing mortgage products and lenders across 15 categories, providing valuable insights for prospective borrowers. - read more
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at enhancing financial stability within the housing market. Effective from 1 February 2026, APRA will impose a cap limiting banks to issuing no more than 20% of new home loans to borrowers with a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio of six times or higher. This measure is designed to curb the rise in high-risk lending practices and mitigate potential vulnerabilities in the financial system. - read more
Welcome to our comprehensive guide on home loan refinancing. Whether you're a first-time homeowner or a seasoned property investor, understanding the ins and outs of refinancing can save you a significant amount of money and anxiety. - read more
Embarking on the journey to home ownership in Australia is both exciting and daunting. The housing market here is unique, with its own set of challenges and opportunities to navigate. Understanding the intricacies of this market is crucial as you begin your home ownership adventure. This means keeping an eye on property prices, interest rates, and evolving regulations that might impact your purchasing power. - read more
Embarking on the journey to buy your first home is both an exciting and significant milestone in Australia. However, the process is also complex, and the learning curve can be steep for first-time home buyers. Being thoroughly informed is key to navigating the housing market's intricacies and can help elude the common missteps that befall many novices. - read more
As mortgage interest rates continue to rise in Australia, it's becoming more important than ever for homeowners to take control of their finances. This article will provide valuable tips on mortgage refinance and debt consolidation for Aussie homeowners. With the potential for future rate increases by the Reserve Bank of Australia due to inflation concerns, many homeowners are feeling the financial burden. However, by exploring options like refinancing and consolidating debt, homeowners can regain control of their financial situation. - read more
A mortgage offset account is a financial product that allows homeowners to use their savings to reduce the interest charged on their mortgage. It is a transaction account linked to your mortgage, and the balance in this account is offset against your outstanding mortgage balance when calculating interest charges. - read more
Need Help Finding a Home Loan?
Get your free home loan eligibility assessment and compare offers tailored
specifically to your circumstances.
All finance quotes are provided free (via our secure server) and without
obligation. We respect your
privacy.
"Mastering Home Loans: Navigating the Australian Mortgage Market"
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts.