Australia Grapples with Prolonged Economic Slowdown

4

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in its recent economic outlook, revised Australia's GDP growth projection for 2024 downwards—from an anticipated 1.5% growth to a more conservative 1.1%. Looking further ahead, it forecasts a gradual recovery with an expected GDP increase of 1.8% by 2025.

Despite these projections, Australia's population growth of 2.4% for the year ending June 2024 tends to exacerbate the per capita recession, hinting that this economic hardship might persist beyond previous expectations. The ramifications of these economic conditions are predominately felt by average households.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's steadfast approach in raising interest rates has placed a substantial burden on household budgets. This has led to a 2.4% reduction in household consumption from its apex in real per capita terms.

More noticeably, real per capita household disposable income plunged by an unprecedented 8% from its earlier highs. This constitutes the steepest decline observed in contemporary economic analysis according to recent statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

August figures from the ABS Household Spending Indicator reported stagnant spending in nominal terms, succeeding prior decreases of 0.5% in July and 0.1% in June. Robert Ewing, head of business statistics at ABS, observed, "Growth in household spending has stalled at the start of the financial year, even as the Federal government's Stage 3 tax cuts came into effect on 1 July".

An analytical depiction by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, matched ABS Household Spending Indicator data with household consumption figures from quarterly national accounts. The analysis suggests a persisting frailty in these accounts throughout Q3, indicating that the current recession per capita is far from over.

The new policies, including the Stage 3 tax cuts designed to boost economic engagement and consumer spending, appear to have offered limited relief as the economy remains dormant. Acknowledging information from the original source, The OECD Digest, it's evident that while several measures are in play, the anticipated economic rejuvenation remains elusive.

Published:Tuesday, 8th Oct 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Sydney's Housing Market Reaches Record $2 Million 17 Apr 2025: Paige Estritori In a landmark moment for Sydney's real estate market, the city’s median asking price for houses has surpassed the $2 million mark, hitting $2,012,000 as of 15 April, according to SQM Research. This figure includes Greater Sydney regions such as the Blue Mountains and Central Coast. The development was confirmed by SQM's managing director, Louis Christopher. - read more

Institutional Investors Maintain Course Amid Escalating Geopolitical Risks 17 Apr 2025: Paige Estritori Institutional investors across the globe are largely standing firm despite acknowledging the rising geopolitical risks impacting their portfolios. Recent research by investment consultancy firm Bfinance, involving over 160 institutional investors worldwide, reveals that most entities have not adjusted their strategic investments amidst the current economic turbulence driven by trade conflicts. - read more

Acadian Launches Diversified Emerging Markets Equity Fund for Australian Investors 16 Apr 2025: Paige Estritori Acadian Asset Management, renowned for its quantitative investment strategies, has introduced a new emerging markets equity fund targeting Australian wholesale investors. This fund is meticulously crafted to balance risk without compromising on long-term returns. - read more

Bank of Queensland Warns of Rising Bad Loans Amid Economic Uncertainty 16 Apr 2025: Paige Estritori The Bank of Queensland, a prominent mid-tier lender, has issued a cautionary note about an anticipated rise in bad loans due to ongoing economic uncertainty. Despite this warning, the bank's shares experienced an unexpected surge. - read more

ASIC to Name Financial Licensees in New Breach Transparency Initiative 14 Apr 2025: Paige Estritori The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has proposed a new regulatory framework aimed at increasing transparency in the financial industry by identifying financial planning licensees who report breaches. Revealed in a consultation paper, CP 383, this proposal would see ASIC start publishing Reportable Situations (RS) and Internal Dispute Resolution (IDR) data at both firm and industry levels, including the names and licence numbers of the offending companies. - read more