RBA Remains Cautious Despite Economic Slowdown

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Though the economy is experiencing a downturn, RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasizes that the demand for goods and services still outstrips supply capabilities.

"It's understandable that people think a slower economy should lead to rate cuts, but we need tangible inflation improvement before making such a move," Bullock stated during her speech on Thursday.

This comes in the wake of a modest 0.2% economic growth in the June quarter, with an annual increase holding at 1%, marking the lowest since the 1991 recession outside the pandemic period.

The slowdown was anticipated as a consequence of maintained high-interest rates aimed at dampening demand to curb inflation.

Despite slowing growth, Bullock pointed out that demand remains high partly because post-pandemic resurgence has sustained some strength in the economy.

She also mentioned the ongoing underperformance on the supply side, particularly in productivity growth.

"It's a matter of growth rates versus levels," she explained at the Anika Foundation Fundraising Lunch, indicating that inflation persists due to demand remaining higher than supply capabilities.

This protracted wait for interest rate cuts is challenging for the federal government, which faces scrutiny over its budgetary decisions and their impact on inflation.

Bullock acknowledged that both federal and state governments are wrestling with inflation as it directly affects their regions' residents.

When asked if Treasurer Jim Chalmers was shifting blame to the RBA, Bullock refrained from commenting directly but clarified both were committed to their roles.

The opposition has leveraged the national accounts to criticize the government, with Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor suggesting a conflict between government spending and RBA's inflation control measures.

In defense, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher highlighted that the government's expenditure was strategically targeted to support the economy without exacerbating inflation;

"Had the government not provided necessary aid during this period, the economic figures would have been worse," Gallagher told ABC TV on Thursday.

Bullock further dedicated significant portions of her speech to the hazards posed by stubborn high inflation.

She cautioned that although inflation expectations are stable, this stability is not guaranteed. A scenario of expected consistent price rises could necessitate further interest rate hikes.

"In that case, we would need to throttle the economy more, leading to higher unemployment and potential recession," she warned.

Prolonged inflation risks pushing more borrowers, particularly those with lower incomes, into mortgage stress and potentially forcing home sales.

"High inflation is why there is so much cost of living discussion - it adversely affects everyone, especially the most vulnerable,” Bullock concluded.

Published:Friday, 6th Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Investor Loan Demand Adds Fresh Pressure for Home Buyers

12 Aug 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia's home loan market appears to be shifting into a more competitive phase, with recent lending indicators suggesting investor activity is strengthening while many owner-occupiers remain cautious. For aspiring buyers, this matters because a lift in investor demand may influence auction conditions, price expectations and the urgency around securing finance before making an offer. - read more

Borrowers Recheck Their Home Loans as Refinancing Lifts

05 Aug 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia’s mortgage market appears to be moving into a more active phase, with the latest lending indicators pointing to renewed borrower engagement after months of caution. Rather than waiting passively for clearer interest rate direction, many households seem to be testing whether their existing home loan still stacks up against current market offers. - read more

Rate Relief May Be Coming, But Borrowers Face a Longer Wait

22 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian mortgage holders have been given a cautious glimpse of future relief, with Westpac shifting its long-range interest rate forecast and bringing its expected timing for cuts forward to August 2027. That move means all four major banks now broadly expect borrowers to see lower rates from next year, rather than waiting until 2028. - read more

Australians Turn Tax Refunds Into Home Loan Breathing Room

15 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Tax time is shaping up less like a spending season and more like a reset moment for Australian households. Fresh reporting based on Finder research suggests many people expecting a 2026 tax refund are planning to bank the money, pay bills or reduce debt rather than spend it on discretionary purchases. - read more

Mortgage Rate Competition Heats Up for Australian Borrowers

08 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian mortgage competition has taken a notable turn, with a growing group of lenders trimming selected home loan rates even after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May cash rate increase. According to recent market reporting, 18 lenders have reduced at least some variable mortgage rates, while AMP Bank has made one of the sharper fixed-rate moves, cutting selected fixed rates by up to 0.50 percentage points. - read more

Click for more Finance News