RBA Remains Cautious Despite Economic Slowdown

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Though the economy is experiencing a downturn, RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasizes that the demand for goods and services still outstrips supply capabilities.

"It's understandable that people think a slower economy should lead to rate cuts, but we need tangible inflation improvement before making such a move," Bullock stated during her speech on Thursday.

This comes in the wake of a modest 0.2% economic growth in the June quarter, with an annual increase holding at 1%, marking the lowest since the 1991 recession outside the pandemic period.

The slowdown was anticipated as a consequence of maintained high-interest rates aimed at dampening demand to curb inflation.

Despite slowing growth, Bullock pointed out that demand remains high partly because post-pandemic resurgence has sustained some strength in the economy.

She also mentioned the ongoing underperformance on the supply side, particularly in productivity growth.

"It's a matter of growth rates versus levels," she explained at the Anika Foundation Fundraising Lunch, indicating that inflation persists due to demand remaining higher than supply capabilities.

This protracted wait for interest rate cuts is challenging for the federal government, which faces scrutiny over its budgetary decisions and their impact on inflation.

Bullock acknowledged that both federal and state governments are wrestling with inflation as it directly affects their regions' residents.

When asked if Treasurer Jim Chalmers was shifting blame to the RBA, Bullock refrained from commenting directly but clarified both were committed to their roles.

The opposition has leveraged the national accounts to criticize the government, with Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor suggesting a conflict between government spending and RBA's inflation control measures.

In defense, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher highlighted that the government's expenditure was strategically targeted to support the economy without exacerbating inflation;

"Had the government not provided necessary aid during this period, the economic figures would have been worse," Gallagher told ABC TV on Thursday.

Bullock further dedicated significant portions of her speech to the hazards posed by stubborn high inflation.

She cautioned that although inflation expectations are stable, this stability is not guaranteed. A scenario of expected consistent price rises could necessitate further interest rate hikes.

"In that case, we would need to throttle the economy more, leading to higher unemployment and potential recession," she warned.

Prolonged inflation risks pushing more borrowers, particularly those with lower incomes, into mortgage stress and potentially forcing home sales.

"High inflation is why there is so much cost of living discussion - it adversely affects everyone, especially the most vulnerable,” Bullock concluded.

Published:Friday, 6th Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

KPMG Forecasts 7.7% Rise in Australian House Prices for 2026

24 Mar 2026: Paige Estritori

According to KPMG's latest Residential Property Outlook, Australian house prices are projected to increase by 7.7% in 2026. This forecast indicates a continuation of the strong momentum observed in the property market during the latter half of 2025, driven by government policies and inflationary pressures. - read more

ANZ Predicts Diverging Trends in Australian Housing Market for 2026

24 Mar 2026: Paige Estritori

ANZ Research has indicated that Australia's housing market may be approaching a modest slowdown, with regional variations becoming more pronounced. Economists Madeline Dunk and Jack Chambers suggest that leading indicators point to fading momentum, particularly in certain areas. - read more

Economists Forecast Minimum 5% Increase in Australian House Prices for 2026

24 Mar 2026: Paige Estritori

Following an 8.6% increase in 2025, Australian residential property values are expected to rise by at least 5% over the next 12 months. This projection reflects ongoing demand outstripping supply, contributing to the nation's housing affordability challenges. - read more

Australian Mortgage Market Reaches Record High Amidst Surging Property Prices

16 Mar 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia's mortgage market has achieved a new milestone, with the total value of residential mortgages reaching $2.41 trillion. This record-breaking figure reflects a 0.67% increase from the previous month and a 6.36% rise over the past year, as reported by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). - read more

Australian Mortgage Stress Declines to Three-Year Low Amidst Economic Shifts

16 Mar 2026: Paige Estritori

Recent data indicates that mortgage stress among Australian homeowners has decreased to its lowest level in three years. In the three months leading up to December 2025, 24.5% of mortgage holders were classified as 'at risk,' a decline of 3.4 percentage points since August. This improvement is largely attributed to previous rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). - read more

Click for more Finance News