Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead
Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead
1
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
Australia is currently navigating its way out of what has been called the longest recession on record.
The nation has seen six consecutive quarters of declining per capita gross domestic product, indicating a sustained period of economic downturn.
A significant contributor to this decline has been the household sector. By the second quarter of 2024, there was a notable 2.4% reduction in real per capita household consumption from its peak level.
Alarmingly, real per capita household disposable income experienced an even steeper drop, plunging by approximately 8%, as shown in national accounts data. This marks the largest recorded decrease in Australia’s history.
In its latest economic outlook, encapsulated in the Red Book for October, Westpac predicts a slow recovery process from this recession. They highlight the harsh fall in per capita disposable income, which their analysis pegs at a dramatic 10% drop.
According to Westpac, “The combined effect of rising income tax payments, higher interest and the surge in inflation has produced a 4.8% drop in aggregate terms since Sep 2021 and an eye-watering 10% plunge in per capita terms.”
Westpac draws a stark comparison to the early 1990s recession, stating, “That is about double the size of the decline seen during the recession in the early-1990s (when the average mortgage interest rate was 15% and the unemployment rate spiked 4ppts on its way to an eventual peak of over 11%).”
There is a slightly improving consumer mood, bolstered by tax cuts and other governmental aid, and an optimistic shift in expectations for interest rates. “The consumer mood has become considerably less bleak, buoyed on the one hand by the additional cash in hand as tax cuts and other support measures flow through, and on the other by turning expectations for interest rates.”
Commenting on consumer sentiment, Westpac notes, “The most striking sentiment shift over the last three months has again been around consumer expectations for interest rates. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell by a third between July and October.”
Despite these modest shifts in consumer sentiment, Westpac cautions that full economic recovery may proceed at a gradual pace. “The medium-term recovery process looks likely to be a slow one,” they warn.
Factors contributing to this sluggish recovery include a gentle easing cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the slow rebound of household disposable incomes, and reduced use of savings reserves accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, deceleration in population growth poses another challenge.
Ultimately, Westpac concludes that despite some encouraging developments, the path to consumer recovery remains extensive. “Despite some more promising signs, the consumer recovery still has a long way to go.”
These insights and forecasts, grounded in Westpac’s research and national data, highlight the complex road to recovery facing Australia today, encouraging consumers and policymakers alike to brace for a protracted economic landscape.
Published:Friday, 1st Nov 2024 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
Australia's leading banks-Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), Westpac, National Australia Bank (NAB), and ANZ-are adjusting their mortgage strategies to reduce dependence on mortgage brokers. This move comes as profit margins are squeezed by lower interest rates, rising operational costs, and intensified market competition. - read more
On November 3, 2025, Westpac Banking Corporation announced an agreement to sell its RAMS mortgage portfolio, valued at A$21.4 billion, to a consortium comprising Pepper Money, investment firm KKR, and asset manager PIMCO. The sale is at a slight premium to the gross loan value of the portfolio to be transferred at completion. However, Westpac anticipates incurring a loss on the sale after accounting for transaction costs and other financial adjustments. - read more
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the nation's largest bank by market value, reported a slight increase in first-quarter cash profit, driven by strong growth in home loans and household deposits. The bank achieved an unaudited cash profit of approximately A$2.6 billion, a 1% rise from the previous two-quarter average and 2% higher than the same period last year. - read more
In October 2025, Australia's housing market witnessed its most substantial price surge in over two years. This remarkable growth is primarily attributed to recent interest rate cuts implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and supportive government policies aimed at stimulating the property sector. - read more
In its November 2025 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%. This decision reflects the central bank's cautious approach in light of persistent inflationary pressures and a robust housing market. - read more
Embarking on the journey to buy your first home is both an exciting and significant milestone in Australia. However, the process is also complex, and the learning curve can be steep for first-time home buyers. Being thoroughly informed is key to navigating the housing market's intricacies and can help elude the common missteps that befall many novices. - read more
Mortgage stress is a common concern among homeowners worldwide, with the potential to cause significant financial and emotional strain. It often occurs when mortgage repayments consume a large portion of your income, leaving little room for other expenses and causing anxiety over financial security. The impact of not managing this stress can be far-reaching, affecting not only one's financial health but also overall wellbeing. - read more
Embarking on the journey to home ownership in Australia is both exciting and daunting. The housing market here is unique, with its own set of challenges and opportunities to navigate. Understanding the intricacies of this market is crucial as you begin your home ownership adventure. This means keeping an eye on property prices, interest rates, and evolving regulations that might impact your purchasing power. - read more
Buying a home is one of the most significant financial commitments you will make in your lifetime. Without a solid savings plan, you may find it challenging to gather the necessary funds for a home deposit. This can delay your home-buying journey and add unnecessary stress to an already high-stakes process. - read more
Need Help Finding a Home Loan?
Get your free home loan eligibility assessment and compare offers tailored
specifically to your circumstances.
All finance quotes are provided free (via our secure server) and without
obligation. We respect your
privacy.
"Mastering Home Loans: Navigating the Australian Mortgage Market"
