Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

A significant contributor to this decline has been the household sector. By the second quarter of 2024, there was a notable 2.4% reduction in real per capita household consumption from its peak level.

Alarmingly, real per capita household disposable income experienced an even steeper drop, plunging by approximately 8%, as shown in national accounts data. This marks the largest recorded decrease in Australia’s history.

In its latest economic outlook, encapsulated in the Red Book for October, Westpac predicts a slow recovery process from this recession. They highlight the harsh fall in per capita disposable income, which their analysis pegs at a dramatic 10% drop.

According to Westpac, “The combined effect of rising income tax payments, higher interest and the surge in inflation has produced a 4.8% drop in aggregate terms since Sep 2021 and an eye-watering 10% plunge in per capita terms.”

Westpac draws a stark comparison to the early 1990s recession, stating, “That is about double the size of the decline seen during the recession in the early-1990s (when the average mortgage interest rate was 15% and the unemployment rate spiked 4ppts on its way to an eventual peak of over 11%).”

There is a slightly improving consumer mood, bolstered by tax cuts and other governmental aid, and an optimistic shift in expectations for interest rates. “The consumer mood has become considerably less bleak, buoyed on the one hand by the additional cash in hand as tax cuts and other support measures flow through, and on the other by turning expectations for interest rates.”

Commenting on consumer sentiment, Westpac notes, “The most striking sentiment shift over the last three months has again been around consumer expectations for interest rates. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell by a third between July and October.”

Despite these modest shifts in consumer sentiment, Westpac cautions that full economic recovery may proceed at a gradual pace. “The medium-term recovery process looks likely to be a slow one,” they warn.

Factors contributing to this sluggish recovery include a gentle easing cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the slow rebound of household disposable incomes, and reduced use of savings reserves accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, deceleration in population growth poses another challenge.

Ultimately, Westpac concludes that despite some encouraging developments, the path to consumer recovery remains extensive. “Despite some more promising signs, the consumer recovery still has a long way to go.”

These insights and forecasts, grounded in Westpac’s research and national data, highlight the complex road to recovery facing Australia today, encouraging consumers and policymakers alike to brace for a protracted economic landscape.

Published:Friday, 1st Nov 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

APRA Implements New Cap on High Debt-to-Income Home Loans

03 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at enhancing financial stability within the housing market. Effective from 1 February 2026, APRA will impose a cap limiting banks to issuing no more than 20% of new home loans to borrowers with a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio of six times or higher. This measure is designed to curb the rise in high-risk lending practices and mitigate potential vulnerabilities in the financial system. - read more

Australian Banks Respond to RBA's Interest Rate Increase

03 May 2026: Paige Estritori

In response to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent decision to raise the official cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.85%, Australia's major banks have announced corresponding increases in their home loan variable interest rates. This move marks the first cash rate hike in two years and reflects the central bank's efforts to address rising inflation and economic growth concerns. - read more

Impact of the 5% Deposit Scheme on Housing Affordability

03 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The Real Estate Institute of Australia's (REIA) latest Housing Affordability Report indicates a decline in housing affordability during the December 2025 quarter. This trend is largely attributed to the federal government's expansion of the 5% Deposit Scheme, which has significantly increased participation among first-home buyers. - read more

Sharp Increase in Mortgage Arrears Amid Economic Pressures

25 Apr 2026: Paige Estritori

Recent data from Fitch Ratings indicates a sharper-than-usual rise in Australian mortgage arrears during the first quarter of 2025. Conforming mortgage arrears (30+ days) increased by 23 basis points to 1.36%, while non-conforming arrears rose by 39 basis points to 5.32%. This escalation is nearly three times the typical seasonal rise, which averages around 8 basis points in Q1. - read more

Australian Banks Raise Fixed Home Loan Rates in April 2026

17 Apr 2026: Paige Estritori

In April 2026, Australia's major banks implemented significant increases in fixed home loan interest rates. Westpac led the adjustments with a 0.45 percentage point rise, bringing its one-year fixed rate to 6.24%. ANZ followed with a 0.40 percentage point increase, setting its one-year fixed rate at 6.34%. Commonwealth Bank and NAB also raised their fixed rates by 0.30 percentage points each. - read more

Click for more Finance News