Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

A significant contributor to this decline has been the household sector. By the second quarter of 2024, there was a notable 2.4% reduction in real per capita household consumption from its peak level.

Alarmingly, real per capita household disposable income experienced an even steeper drop, plunging by approximately 8%, as shown in national accounts data. This marks the largest recorded decrease in Australia’s history.

In its latest economic outlook, encapsulated in the Red Book for October, Westpac predicts a slow recovery process from this recession. They highlight the harsh fall in per capita disposable income, which their analysis pegs at a dramatic 10% drop.

According to Westpac, “The combined effect of rising income tax payments, higher interest and the surge in inflation has produced a 4.8% drop in aggregate terms since Sep 2021 and an eye-watering 10% plunge in per capita terms.”

Westpac draws a stark comparison to the early 1990s recession, stating, “That is about double the size of the decline seen during the recession in the early-1990s (when the average mortgage interest rate was 15% and the unemployment rate spiked 4ppts on its way to an eventual peak of over 11%).”

There is a slightly improving consumer mood, bolstered by tax cuts and other governmental aid, and an optimistic shift in expectations for interest rates. “The consumer mood has become considerably less bleak, buoyed on the one hand by the additional cash in hand as tax cuts and other support measures flow through, and on the other by turning expectations for interest rates.”

Commenting on consumer sentiment, Westpac notes, “The most striking sentiment shift over the last three months has again been around consumer expectations for interest rates. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell by a third between July and October.”

Despite these modest shifts in consumer sentiment, Westpac cautions that full economic recovery may proceed at a gradual pace. “The medium-term recovery process looks likely to be a slow one,” they warn.

Factors contributing to this sluggish recovery include a gentle easing cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the slow rebound of household disposable incomes, and reduced use of savings reserves accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, deceleration in population growth poses another challenge.

Ultimately, Westpac concludes that despite some encouraging developments, the path to consumer recovery remains extensive. “Despite some more promising signs, the consumer recovery still has a long way to go.”

These insights and forecasts, grounded in Westpac’s research and national data, highlight the complex road to recovery facing Australia today, encouraging consumers and policymakers alike to brace for a protracted economic landscape.

Published:Friday, 1st Nov 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Australian Home Loans Experience Significant Growth in January 2026

20 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In January 2026, Australia's housing market witnessed a remarkable 10.6% increase in home loan approvals compared to the previous month, significantly surpassing December's 4.7% growth. This surge indicates a robust demand for housing credit, reflecting the market's resilience despite existing challenges. - read more

Anticipated 4.8% Rise in Australian Property Prices for 2026

20 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

As we progress through 2026, the Australian property market is poised for continued growth, with forecasts predicting a 4.8% increase in property prices across capital cities. This projection follows an 8.6% rise in 2025, indicating sustained momentum in the housing sector. - read more

Implications of RBA's Interest Rate Hike on Property Prices in 2026

20 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to implement an interest rate hike in early 2026, a move that could significantly influence the trajectory of property price growth. This decision comes in response to rising inflation and aims to stabilize the economy. - read more

First Home Buyer Loan Applications Surge Following Government's 5% Deposit Scheme Expansion

12 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

October 2025 marked a significant milestone for first-time homebuyers in Australia, with loan applications surging by 39.2%. This remarkable increase is largely attributed to the federal government's expansion of the 5% Deposit Scheme, which has made homeownership more accessible to a broader segment of the population. - read more

Investor Home Loans Surge Amid Record Borrowing in Australian Property Market

12 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In the third quarter of 2025, Australia's property market witnessed a significant shift as investors accounted for two out of every five home loans. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that over 57,000 investors borrowed nearly $40 billion during this period, marking a 17.6% increase from the previous quarter. This surge underscores a growing trend of investor dominance in the housing sector. - read more

Click for more Finance News